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Market inspector · lagos · 2026-04-27
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 35°C on April 27?
μ blend—0 forecasts · 12h window
σ blend—combined uncertainty
source spread—disagreement σ across means
peak hour—local · ensemble timing
buckets11same-event siblings
Overlaid line plot comparing our model's blended probability density against the market's current YES-side ask per bucket. 11 buckets shown, μ_blend unknownC. Highlighted bucket marks the inspected market.
Ensemble trajectory · last 7d
85 snapshots · open_meteo_ensembleEnsemble forecast trajectory with P10–P90 band. Span 85 snapshots; drift from 35.1C to 34.9C (-0.2C).
Bucket edges · our_p − market_p
positive = we think bucket is underpriced≤27Chighest temperature in lagos on april 27 2026 27corbelow—0.1%—28Chighest temperature in lagos on april 27 2026 28c—0.1%—29Chighest temperature in lagos on april 27 2026 29c—1.1%—30Chighest temperature in lagos on april 27 2026 30c—5.3%—31Chighest temperature in lagos on april 27 2026 31c—12.0%—32Chighest temperature in lagos on april 27 2026 32c—22.0%—33Chighest temperature in lagos on april 27 2026 33c—27.0%—34Chighest temperature in lagos on april 27 2026 34c—30.0%—35Cyouhighest temperature in lagos on april 27 2026 35c—9.0%—36Chighest temperature in lagos on april 27 2026 36c—5.4%—≥37Chighest temperature in lagos on april 27 2026 37corhigher—0.3%—