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Market inspector · madrid · 2026-04-28
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 23°C on April 28?
μ blend—0 forecasts · 12h window
σ blend—combined uncertainty
source spread—disagreement σ across means
peak hour—local · ensemble timing
buckets11same-event siblings
Overlaid line plot comparing our model's blended probability density against the market's current YES-side ask per bucket. 11 buckets shown, μ_blend unknownC. Highlighted bucket marks the inspected market.
Ensemble trajectory · last 7d
91 snapshots · open_meteo_ensembleEnsemble forecast trajectory with P10–P90 band. Span 91 snapshots; drift from 25.8C to 24.4C (-1.4C).
Bucket edges · our_p − market_p
positive = we think bucket is underpriced≤19Chighest temperature in madrid on april 28 2026 19corbelow—0.1%—20Chighest temperature in madrid on april 28 2026 20c—0.1%—21Chighest temperature in madrid on april 28 2026 21c—0.1%—22Chighest temperature in madrid on april 28 2026 22c—0.2%—23Cyouhighest temperature in madrid on april 28 2026 23c—0.9%—24Chighest temperature in madrid on april 28 2026 24c—8.0%—25Chighest temperature in madrid on april 28 2026 25c—32.0%—26Chighest temperature in madrid on april 28 2026 26c—60.0%—27Chighest temperature in madrid on april 28 2026 27c—11.0%—28Chighest temperature in madrid on april 28 2026 28c—2.5%—≥29Chighest temperature in madrid on april 28 2026 29corhigher—0.9%—