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Market inspector · seoul · 2026-05-03
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 13°C on May 3?
μ blend16.42C276 forecasts · 12h window
σ blend2.00combined uncertainty
source spread±1.54Cdisagreement σ across means
peak hour15:00 ±7.3hlocal · ensemble timing
buckets22same-event siblings
Overlaid line plot comparing our model's blended probability density against the market's current YES-side ask per bucket. 22 buckets shown, μ_blend 16.421C. Highlighted bucket marks the inspected market.
Ensemble trajectory · last 7d
72 snapshots · open_meteo_ensembleEnsemble forecast trajectory with P10–P90 band. Span 72 snapshots; drift from 16.4C to 16.0C (-0.5C).
Bucket edges · our_p − market_p
positive = we think bucket is underpriced≤7Clowest temperature in seoul on may 3 2026 7corbelow0.0%0.9%-0.9pp≤9Chighest temperature in seoul on may 3 2026 9corbelow0.0%0.1%-0.1pp8Clowest temperature in seoul on may 3 2026 8c0.0%1.1%-1.1pp9Clowest temperature in seoul on may 3 2026 9c0.1%4.1%-4.0pp10Clowest temperature in seoul on may 3 2026 10c0.3%16.0%-15.7pp10Chighest temperature in seoul on may 3 2026 10c0.3%0.1%+0.2pp11Clowest temperature in seoul on may 3 2026 11c1.0%47.0%-46.0pp11Chighest temperature in seoul on may 3 2026 11c1.0%0.1%+0.9pp12Clowest temperature in seoul on may 3 2026 12c3.0%51.0%-48.0pp12Chighest temperature in seoul on may 3 2026 12c3.0%0.1%+2.9pp13Clowest temperature in seoul on may 3 2026 13c7.0%0.1%+6.9pp13Cyouhighest temperature in seoul on may 3 2026 13c7.0%0.1%+6.9pp14Clowest temperature in seoul on may 3 2026 14c12.6%0.1%+12.5pp14Chighest temperature in seoul on may 3 2026 14c12.6%28.0%-15.4pp15Clowest temperature in seoul on may 3 2026 15c17.8%0.1%+17.7pp15Chighest temperature in seoul on may 3 2026 15c17.8%42.0%-24.2pp16Clowest temperature in seoul on may 3 2026 16c19.7%0.1%+19.6pp16Chighest temperature in seoul on may 3 2026 16c19.7%27.0%-7.3pp≥17Clowest temperature in seoul on may 3 2026 17corhigher38.6%0.1%+38.5pp17Chighest temperature in seoul on may 3 2026 17c17.1%8.0%+9.1pp18Chighest temperature in seoul on may 3 2026 18c11.6%2.5%+9.1pp≥19Chighest temperature in seoul on may 3 2026 19corhigher9.9%1.0%+8.9pp