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Market inspector · singapore · 2026-05-03
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on May 3?
μ blend31.24C272 forecasts · 12h window
σ blend1.30combined uncertainty
source spread±0.46Cdisagreement σ across means
peak hour14:00 ±1.8hlocal · ensemble timing
buckets11same-event siblings
Overlaid line plot comparing our model's blended probability density against the market's current YES-side ask per bucket. 11 buckets shown, μ_blend 31.243C. Highlighted bucket marks the inspected market.
Ensemble trajectory · last 7d
76 snapshots · open_meteo_ensembleEnsemble forecast trajectory with P10–P90 band. Span 76 snapshots; drift from 32.1C to 31.2C (-0.9C).
Bucket edges · our_p − market_p
positive = we think bucket is underpriced≤25Chighest temperature in singapore on may 3 2026 25corbelow0.0%0.1%-0.1pp26Chighest temperature in singapore on may 3 2026 26c0.1%0.1%-0.1pp27Chighest temperature in singapore on may 3 2026 27c0.6%0.1%+0.5pp28Chighest temperature in singapore on may 3 2026 28c3.6%0.1%+3.5pp29Chighest temperature in singapore on may 3 2026 29c12.8%1.1%+11.7pp30Chighest temperature in singapore on may 3 2026 30c25.6%5.4%+20.2pp31Cyouhighest temperature in singapore on may 3 2026 31c29.3%21.0%+8.3pp32Chighest temperature in singapore on may 3 2026 32c19.2%41.0%-21.8pp33Chighest temperature in singapore on may 3 2026 33c7.2%38.0%-30.8pp34Chighest temperature in singapore on may 3 2026 34c1.5%5.9%-4.4pp≥35Chighest temperature in singapore on may 3 2026 35corhigher0.2%0.8%-0.6pp