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Market inspector · buenos-aires · 2026-05-03
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on May 3?
μ blend15.61C280 forecasts · 12h window
σ blend1.34combined uncertainty
source spread±2.04Cdisagreement σ across means
peak hour15:00 ±0.5hlocal · ensemble timing
buckets11same-event siblings
Overlaid line plot comparing our model's blended probability density against the market's current YES-side ask per bucket. 11 buckets shown, μ_blend 15.614C. Highlighted bucket marks the inspected market.
Ensemble trajectory · last 7d
74 snapshots · open_meteo_ensembleEnsemble forecast trajectory with P10–P90 band. Span 74 snapshots; drift from 15.9C to 16.3C (+0.4C).
Bucket edges · our_p − market_p
positive = we think bucket is underpriced≤12Chighest temperature in buenos aires on may 3 2026 12corbelow0.4%0.3%+0.1pp13Chighest temperature in buenos aires on may 3 2026 13c8.8%0.4%+8.5pp14Chighest temperature in buenos aires on may 3 2026 14c20.9%0.8%+20.1pp15Chighest temperature in buenos aires on may 3 2026 15c29.0%0.8%+28.2pp16Chighest temperature in buenos aires on may 3 2026 16c23.6%3.5%+20.1pp17Chighest temperature in buenos aires on may 3 2026 17c11.3%27.0%-15.7pp18Cyouhighest temperature in buenos aires on may 3 2026 18c3.2%46.0%-42.8pp19Chighest temperature in buenos aires on may 3 2026 19c0.5%20.0%-19.5pp20Chighest temperature in buenos aires on may 3 2026 20c0.1%3.5%-3.5pp21Chighest temperature in buenos aires on may 3 2026 21c0.0%1.2%-1.2pp≥22Chighest temperature in buenos aires on may 3 2026 22corhigher0.0%0.5%-0.5pp