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Market inspector · shenzhen · 2026-04-29
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on April 29?
μ blend—0 forecasts · 12h window
σ blend—combined uncertainty
source spread—disagreement σ across means
peak hour—local · ensemble timing
buckets11same-event siblings
Overlaid line plot comparing our model's blended probability density against the market's current YES-side ask per bucket. 11 buckets shown, μ_blend unknownC. Highlighted bucket marks the inspected market.
Ensemble trajectory · last 7d
98 snapshots · open_meteo_ensembleEnsemble forecast trajectory with P10–P90 band. Span 98 snapshots; drift from 26.2C to 30.0C (+3.7C).
Bucket edges · our_p − market_p
positive = we think bucket is underpriced≤20Chighest temperature in shenzhen on april 29 2026 20corbelow—0.1%—21Chighest temperature in shenzhen on april 29 2026 21c—0.1%—22Chighest temperature in shenzhen on april 29 2026 22c—0.1%—23Chighest temperature in shenzhen on april 29 2026 23c—0.1%—24Chighest temperature in shenzhen on april 29 2026 24c—0.1%—25Chighest temperature in shenzhen on april 29 2026 25c—0.1%—26Cyouhighest temperature in shenzhen on april 29 2026 26c—0.1%—27Chighest temperature in shenzhen on april 29 2026 27c———28Chighest temperature in shenzhen on april 29 2026 28c—0.2%—29Chighest temperature in shenzhen on april 29 2026 29c—0.1%—≥30Chighest temperature in shenzhen on april 29 2026 30corhigher—0.1%—