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Market inspector · amsterdam · 2026-04-23
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on April 23?
μ blend—0 forecasts · 12h window
σ blend—combined uncertainty
source spread—disagreement σ across means
peak hour—local · ensemble timing
buckets11same-event siblings
Overlaid line plot comparing our model's blended probability density against the market's current YES-side ask per bucket. 11 buckets shown, μ_blend unknownC. Highlighted bucket marks the inspected market.
Ensemble trajectory · last 7d
0 snapshots · open_meteo_ensembleNot enough ensemble history yet for a trajectory chart (need ≥2 points).
Bucket edges · our_p − market_p
positive = we think bucket is underpriced≤10Chighest temperature in amsterdam on april 23 2026 10corbelow—0.1%—11Chighest temperature in amsterdam on april 23 2026 11c—0.2%—12Chighest temperature in amsterdam on april 23 2026 12c—0.3%—13Chighest temperature in amsterdam on april 23 2026 13c—0.1%—14Chighest temperature in amsterdam on april 23 2026 14c—1.1%—15Chighest temperature in amsterdam on april 23 2026 15c—19.0%—16Cyouhighest temperature in amsterdam on april 23 2026 16c—64.0%—17Chighest temperature in amsterdam on april 23 2026 17c—18.0%—18Chighest temperature in amsterdam on april 23 2026 18c—6.1%—19Chighest temperature in amsterdam on april 23 2026 19c—0.3%—≥20Chighest temperature in amsterdam on april 23 2026 20corhigher—0.2%—