00
OVERVIEW
· all generations · single screen · live23:42CEST
live
Market inspector · madrid · 2026-05-02
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 21°C on May 2?
μ blend19.09C104 forecasts · 12h window
σ blend1.16combined uncertainty
source spread±0.27Cdisagreement σ across means
peak hour17:00 ±8.8hlocal · ensemble timing
buckets11same-event siblings
Overlaid line plot comparing our model's blended probability density against the market's current YES-side ask per bucket. 11 buckets shown, μ_blend 19.094C. Highlighted bucket marks the inspected market.
Ensemble trajectory · last 7d
94 snapshots · open_meteo_ensembleEnsemble forecast trajectory with P10–P90 band. Span 94 snapshots; drift from 21.2C to 19.3C (-1.9C).
Bucket edges · our_p − market_p
positive = we think bucket is underpriced≤16Chighest temperature in madrid on may 2 2026 16corbelow0.4%0.1%+0.3pp17Chighest temperature in madrid on may 2 2026 17c13.7%0.1%+13.6pp18Chighest temperature in madrid on may 2 2026 18c29.5%0.1%+29.4pp19Chighest temperature in madrid on may 2 2026 19c31.5%43.0%-11.5pp20Chighest temperature in madrid on may 2 2026 20c16.7%43.0%-26.3pp21Cyouhighest temperature in madrid on may 2 2026 21c4.4%12.0%-7.6pp22Chighest temperature in madrid on may 2 2026 22c0.6%3.6%-3.0pp23Chighest temperature in madrid on may 2 2026 23c0.0%1.1%-1.1pp24Chighest temperature in madrid on may 2 2026 24c0.0%0.9%-0.9pp25Chighest temperature in madrid on may 2 2026 25c0.0%0.4%-0.4pp≥26Chighest temperature in madrid on may 2 2026 26corhigher0.0%0.4%-0.4pp