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Market inspector · sao-paulo · 2026-05-02
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 33°C or higher on May 2?
μ blend27.60C112 forecasts · 12h window
σ blend0.80combined uncertainty
source spread±0.49Cdisagreement σ across means
peak hour14:00 ±0.5hlocal · ensemble timing
buckets11same-event siblings
Overlaid line plot comparing our model's blended probability density against the market's current YES-side ask per bucket. 11 buckets shown, μ_blend 27.596C. Highlighted bucket marks the inspected market.
Ensemble trajectory · last 7d
97 snapshots · open_meteo_ensembleEnsemble forecast trajectory with P10–P90 band. Span 97 snapshots; drift from 27.9C to 28.2C (+0.3C).
Bucket edges · our_p − market_p
positive = we think bucket is underpriced≤23Chighest temperature in sao paulo on may 2 2026 23corbelow0.0%0.2%-0.2pp24Chighest temperature in sao paulo on may 2 2026 24c0.1%0.6%-0.5pp25Chighest temperature in sao paulo on may 2 2026 25c2.2%0.4%+1.8pp26Chighest temperature in sao paulo on may 2 2026 26c20.5%1.0%+19.5pp27Chighest temperature in sao paulo on may 2 2026 27c46.6%4.9%+41.7pp28Chighest temperature in sao paulo on may 2 2026 28c26.7%43.0%-16.3pp29Chighest temperature in sao paulo on may 2 2026 29c3.8%48.0%-44.2pp30Chighest temperature in sao paulo on may 2 2026 30c0.1%8.0%-7.9pp31Chighest temperature in sao paulo on may 2 2026 31c0.0%2.7%-2.7pp32Chighest temperature in sao paulo on may 2 2026 32c0.0%1.0%-1.0pp≥33Cyouhighest temperature in sao paulo on may 2 2026 33corhigher0.0%0.6%-0.6pp