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Market inspector · london · 2026-05-02
Will the lowest temperature in London be 8°C on May 2?
μ blend21.62C112 forecasts · 12h window
σ blend1.28combined uncertainty
source spread±0.69Cdisagreement σ across means
peak hour15:00 ±0.9hlocal · ensemble timing
buckets22same-event siblings
Overlaid line plot comparing our model's blended probability density against the market's current YES-side ask per bucket. 22 buckets shown, μ_blend 21.619C. Highlighted bucket marks the inspected market.
Ensemble trajectory · last 7d
96 snapshots · open_meteo_ensembleEnsemble forecast trajectory with P10–P90 band. Span 96 snapshots; drift from 21.3C to 21.6C (+0.2C).
Bucket edges · our_p − market_p
positive = we think bucket is underpriced≤5Clowest temperature in london on may 2 2026 5corbelow0.0%0.1%-0.1pp≤15Chighest temperature in london on may 2 2026 15corbelow0.0%0.1%-0.1pp6Clowest temperature in london on may 2 2026 6c0.0%0.1%-0.1pp7Clowest temperature in london on may 2 2026 7c0.0%0.1%-0.1pp8Cyoulowest temperature in london on may 2 2026 8c0.0%0.2%-0.2pp9Clowest temperature in london on may 2 2026 9c0.0%0.5%-0.5pp10Clowest temperature in london on may 2 2026 10c0.0%0.4%-0.4pp11Clowest temperature in london on may 2 2026 11c0.0%99.8%-99.8pp12Clowest temperature in london on may 2 2026 12c0.0%0.1%-0.1pp13Clowest temperature in london on may 2 2026 13c0.0%0.1%-0.1pp14Clowest temperature in london on may 2 2026 14c0.0%0.1%-0.1pp≥15Clowest temperature in london on may 2 2026 15corhigher100.0%0.1%+99.9pp16Chighest temperature in london on may 2 2026 16c0.0%0.1%-0.1pp17Chighest temperature in london on may 2 2026 17c0.2%0.2%+0.0pp18Chighest temperature in london on may 2 2026 18c1.8%0.2%+1.6pp19Chighest temperature in london on may 2 2026 19c8.3%1.0%+7.3pp20Chighest temperature in london on may 2 2026 20c21.1%2.9%+18.2pp21Chighest temperature in london on may 2 2026 21c30.3%27.0%+3.3pp22Chighest temperature in london on may 2 2026 22c24.3%55.0%-30.7pp23Chighest temperature in london on may 2 2026 23c10.9%20.2%-9.3pp24Chighest temperature in london on may 2 2026 24c2.7%1.5%+1.2pp≥25Chighest temperature in london on may 2 2026 25corhigher0.4%0.7%-0.3pp