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Market inspector · taipei · 2026-04-27
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on April 27?
μ blend—0 forecasts · 12h window
σ blend—combined uncertainty
source spread—disagreement σ across means
peak hour—local · ensemble timing
buckets11same-event siblings
Overlaid line plot comparing our model's blended probability density against the market's current YES-side ask per bucket. 11 buckets shown, μ_blend unknownC. Highlighted bucket marks the inspected market.
Ensemble trajectory · last 7d
86 snapshots · open_meteo_ensembleEnsemble forecast trajectory with P10–P90 band. Span 86 snapshots; drift from 30.7C to 30.8C (+0.1C).
Bucket edges · our_p − market_p
positive = we think bucket is underpriced≤24Chighest temperature in taipei on april 27 2026 24corbelow—0.1%—25Chighest temperature in taipei on april 27 2026 25c—0.1%—26Chighest temperature in taipei on april 27 2026 26c—0.1%—27Chighest temperature in taipei on april 27 2026 27c—0.1%—28Chighest temperature in taipei on april 27 2026 28c—0.1%—29Cyouhighest temperature in taipei on april 27 2026 29c—0.1%—30Chighest temperature in taipei on april 27 2026 30c—0.1%—31Chighest temperature in taipei on april 27 2026 31c—38.0%—32Chighest temperature in taipei on april 27 2026 32c———33Chighest temperature in taipei on april 27 2026 33c—0.1%—≥34Chighest temperature in taipei on april 27 2026 34corhigher—0.1%—