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Market inspector · moscow · 2026-04-28
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 7°C or higher on April 28?
μ blend—0 forecasts · 12h window
σ blend—combined uncertainty
source spread—disagreement σ across means
peak hour—local · ensemble timing
buckets9same-event siblings
Overlaid line plot comparing our model's blended probability density against the market's current YES-side ask per bucket. 9 buckets shown, μ_blend unknownC. Highlighted bucket marks the inspected market.
Ensemble trajectory · last 7d
92 snapshots · open_meteo_ensembleEnsemble forecast trajectory with P10–P90 band. Span 92 snapshots; drift from 5.5C to 0.7C (-4.8C).
Bucket edges · our_p − market_p
positive = we think bucket is underpriced≤3Chighest temperature in moscow on april 28 2026 neg 3corbelow—0.1%—0Chighest temperature in moscow on april 28 2026 0c—0.1%—1Chighest temperature in moscow on april 28 2026 1c—19.2%—2Chighest temperature in moscow on april 28 2026 2c—67.0%—3Chighest temperature in moscow on april 28 2026 3c—10.0%—4Chighest temperature in moscow on april 28 2026 4c—3.0%—5Chighest temperature in moscow on april 28 2026 5c—0.9%—6Chighest temperature in moscow on april 28 2026 6c—0.5%—≥7Cyouhighest temperature in moscow on april 28 2026 7corhigher—0.2%—