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Market inspector · moscow · 2026-05-03
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 16°C on May 3?
μ blend18.21C219 forecasts · 12h window
σ blend0.98combined uncertainty
source spread±1.57Cdisagreement σ across means
peak hour16:00 ±0.7hlocal · ensemble timing
buckets11same-event siblings
Overlaid line plot comparing our model's blended probability density against the market's current YES-side ask per bucket. 11 buckets shown, μ_blend 18.214C. Highlighted bucket marks the inspected market.
Ensemble trajectory · last 7d
71 snapshots · open_meteo_ensembleEnsemble forecast trajectory with P10–P90 band. Span 71 snapshots; drift from 16.3C to 16.5C (+0.2C).
Bucket edges · our_p − market_p
positive = we think bucket is underpriced≤14Chighest temperature in moscow on may 3 2026 14corbelow0.0%0.3%-0.3pp15Chighest temperature in moscow on may 3 2026 15c1.1%0.3%+0.8pp16Cyouhighest temperature in moscow on may 3 2026 16c9.5%0.6%+8.9pp17Chighest temperature in moscow on may 3 2026 17c30.6%1.8%+28.8pp18Chighest temperature in moscow on may 3 2026 18c37.6%7.0%+30.6pp19Chighest temperature in moscow on may 3 2026 19c17.7%19.0%-1.3pp20Chighest temperature in moscow on may 3 2026 20c3.2%37.0%-33.8pp21Chighest temperature in moscow on may 3 2026 21c0.2%32.0%-31.8pp22Chighest temperature in moscow on may 3 2026 22c0.0%10.0%-10.0pp23Chighest temperature in moscow on may 3 2026 23c0.0%4.7%-4.7pp≥24Chighest temperature in moscow on may 3 2026 24corhigher0.0%2.0%-2.0pp