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Market inspector · toronto · 2026-05-01
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 10°C on May 1?
μ blend—0 forecasts · 12h window
σ blend—combined uncertainty
source spread—disagreement σ across means
peak hour—local · ensemble timing
buckets11same-event siblings
Overlaid line plot comparing our model's blended probability density against the market's current YES-side ask per bucket. 11 buckets shown, μ_blend unknownC. Highlighted bucket marks the inspected market.
Ensemble trajectory · last 7d
98 snapshots · open_meteo_ensembleEnsemble forecast trajectory with P10–P90 band. Span 98 snapshots; drift from 7.5C to 9.6C (+2.1C).
Bucket edges · our_p − market_p
positive = we think bucket is underpriced≤4Chighest temperature in toronto on may 1 2026 4corbelow—0.1%—5Chighest temperature in toronto on may 1 2026 5c—0.1%—6Chighest temperature in toronto on may 1 2026 6c—0.5%—7Chighest temperature in toronto on may 1 2026 7c—1.1%—8Chighest temperature in toronto on may 1 2026 8c—6.0%—9Chighest temperature in toronto on may 1 2026 9c—34.0%—10Cyouhighest temperature in toronto on may 1 2026 10c—34.0%—11Chighest temperature in toronto on may 1 2026 11c—18.0%—12Chighest temperature in toronto on may 1 2026 12c—5.8%—13Chighest temperature in toronto on may 1 2026 13c—1.0%—≥14Chighest temperature in toronto on may 1 2026 14corhigher—0.7%—