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Market inspector · lagos · 2026-04-28
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 27°C or below on April 28?
μ blend—0 forecasts · 12h window
σ blend—combined uncertainty
source spread—disagreement σ across means
peak hour—local · ensemble timing
buckets11same-event siblings
Overlaid line plot comparing our model's blended probability density against the market's current YES-side ask per bucket. 11 buckets shown, μ_blend unknownC. Highlighted bucket marks the inspected market.
Ensemble trajectory · last 7d
93 snapshots · open_meteo_ensembleEnsemble forecast trajectory with P10–P90 band. Span 93 snapshots; drift from 34.5C to 33.8C (-0.7C).
Bucket edges · our_p − market_p
positive = we think bucket is underpriced≤27Cyouhighest temperature in lagos on april 28 2026 27corbelow—9.9%—28Chighest temperature in lagos on april 28 2026 28c—1.0%—29Chighest temperature in lagos on april 28 2026 29c—1.0%—30Chighest temperature in lagos on april 28 2026 30c—3.1%—31Chighest temperature in lagos on april 28 2026 31c—21.0%—32Chighest temperature in lagos on april 28 2026 32c—36.0%—33Chighest temperature in lagos on april 28 2026 33c—29.0%—34Chighest temperature in lagos on april 28 2026 34c—17.0%—35Chighest temperature in lagos on april 28 2026 35c—1.0%—36Chighest temperature in lagos on april 28 2026 36c—1.0%—≥37Chighest temperature in lagos on april 28 2026 37corhigher—0.8%—