00
OVERVIEW
· all generations · single screen · live01:04CEST
live
Market inspector · munich · 2026-05-01
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on May 1?
μ blend—0 forecasts · 12h window
σ blend—combined uncertainty
source spread—disagreement σ across means
peak hour—local · ensemble timing
buckets11same-event siblings
Overlaid line plot comparing our model's blended probability density against the market's current YES-side ask per bucket. 11 buckets shown, μ_blend unknownC. Highlighted bucket marks the inspected market.
Ensemble trajectory · last 7d
90 snapshots · open_meteo_ensembleEnsemble forecast trajectory with P10–P90 band. Span 90 snapshots; drift from 17.0C to 18.0C (+1.0C).
Bucket edges · our_p − market_p
positive = we think bucket is underpriced≤13Chighest temperature in munich on may 1 2026 13corbelow—0.1%—14Chighest temperature in munich on may 1 2026 14c—0.1%—15Chighest temperature in munich on may 1 2026 15c—0.1%—16Chighest temperature in munich on may 1 2026 16c—0.1%—17Chighest temperature in munich on may 1 2026 17c—0.2%—18Cyouhighest temperature in munich on may 1 2026 18c—0.5%—19Chighest temperature in munich on may 1 2026 19c—8.0%—20Chighest temperature in munich on may 1 2026 20c—70.0%—21Chighest temperature in munich on may 1 2026 21c—22.0%—22Chighest temperature in munich on may 1 2026 22c—2.4%—≥23Chighest temperature in munich on may 1 2026 23corhigher—0.9%—