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Market inspector · amsterdam · 2026-05-02
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 15°C on May 2?
μ blend19.02C104 forecasts · 12h window
σ blend0.88combined uncertainty
source spread±0.65Cdisagreement σ across means
peak hour16:00 ±1.0hlocal · ensemble timing
buckets11same-event siblings
Overlaid line plot comparing our model's blended probability density against the market's current YES-side ask per bucket. 11 buckets shown, μ_blend 19.02C. Highlighted bucket marks the inspected market.
Ensemble trajectory · last 7d
95 snapshots · open_meteo_ensembleEnsemble forecast trajectory with P10–P90 band. Span 95 snapshots; drift from 19.1C to 18.8C (-0.3C).
Bucket edges · our_p − market_p
positive = we think bucket is underpriced≤14Chighest temperature in amsterdam on may 2 2026 14corbelow0.0%0.1%-0.1pp15Cyouhighest temperature in amsterdam on may 2 2026 15c0.0%0.1%-0.1pp16Chighest temperature in amsterdam on may 2 2026 16c1.0%0.1%+0.9pp17Chighest temperature in amsterdam on may 2 2026 17c11.2%0.1%+11.1pp18Chighest temperature in amsterdam on may 2 2026 18c36.8%0.1%+36.7pp19Chighest temperature in amsterdam on may 2 2026 19c37.7%13.0%+24.7pp20Chighest temperature in amsterdam on may 2 2026 20c12.0%76.0%-64.0pp21Chighest temperature in amsterdam on may 2 2026 21c1.2%21.0%-19.8pp22Chighest temperature in amsterdam on may 2 2026 22c0.0%2.0%-2.0pp23Chighest temperature in amsterdam on may 2 2026 23c0.0%0.5%-0.5pp≥24Chighest temperature in amsterdam on may 2 2026 24corhigher0.0%0.3%-0.3pp