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Market inspector · guangzhou · 2026-05-02
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 24°C on May 2?
μ blend28.27C104 forecasts · 12h window
σ blend0.93combined uncertainty
source spread±0.38Cdisagreement σ across means
peak hour14:00 ±1.2hlocal · ensemble timing
buckets11same-event siblings
Overlaid line plot comparing our model's blended probability density against the market's current YES-side ask per bucket. 11 buckets shown, μ_blend 28.274C. Highlighted bucket marks the inspected market.
Ensemble trajectory · last 7d
93 snapshots · open_meteo_ensembleEnsemble forecast trajectory with P10–P90 band. Span 93 snapshots; drift from 28.2C to 28.2C (+0.1C).
Bucket edges · our_p − market_p
positive = we think bucket is underpriced≤23Chighest temperature in guangzhou on may 2 2026 23corbelow0.0%0.1%-0.1pp24Cyouhighest temperature in guangzhou on may 2 2026 24c0.0%0.1%-0.1pp25Chighest temperature in guangzhou on may 2 2026 25c0.7%0.1%+0.6pp26Chighest temperature in guangzhou on may 2 2026 26c7.8%0.1%+7.7pp27Chighest temperature in guangzhou on may 2 2026 27c29.8%0.1%+29.8pp28Chighest temperature in guangzhou on may 2 2026 28c39.8%0.1%+39.7pp29Chighest temperature in guangzhou on may 2 2026 29c18.6%99.9%-81.3pp30Chighest temperature in guangzhou on may 2 2026 30c3.0%0.2%+2.8pp31Chighest temperature in guangzhou on may 2 2026 31c0.2%0.1%+0.1pp32Chighest temperature in guangzhou on may 2 2026 32c0.0%0.1%-0.1pp≥33Chighest temperature in guangzhou on may 2 2026 33corhigher0.0%0.1%-0.1pp