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Market inspector · taipei · 2026-04-24
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 20°C on April 24?
μ blend—0 forecasts · 12h window
σ blend—combined uncertainty
source spread—disagreement σ across means
peak hour—local · ensemble timing
buckets11same-event siblings
Overlaid line plot comparing our model's blended probability density against the market's current YES-side ask per bucket. 11 buckets shown, μ_blend unknownC. Highlighted bucket marks the inspected market.
Ensemble trajectory · last 7d
0 snapshots · open_meteo_ensembleNot enough ensemble history yet for a trajectory chart (need ≥2 points).
Bucket edges · our_p − market_p
positive = we think bucket is underpriced≤14Chighest temperature in taipei on april 24 2026 14corbelow—0.1%—15Chighest temperature in taipei on april 24 2026 15c—0.1%—16Chighest temperature in taipei on april 24 2026 16c—0.1%—17Chighest temperature in taipei on april 24 2026 17c—0.1%—18Chighest temperature in taipei on april 24 2026 18c—0.1%—19Chighest temperature in taipei on april 24 2026 19c—0.1%—20Cyouhighest temperature in taipei on april 24 2026 20c—0.1%—21Chighest temperature in taipei on april 24 2026 21c—99.9%—22Chighest temperature in taipei on april 24 2026 22c—0.3%—23Chighest temperature in taipei on april 24 2026 23c—0.2%—≥24Chighest temperature in taipei on april 24 2026 24corhigher—0.1%—