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Market inspector · warsaw · 2026-04-28
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on April 28?
μ blend—0 forecasts · 12h window
σ blend—combined uncertainty
source spread—disagreement σ across means
peak hour—local · ensemble timing
buckets11same-event siblings
Overlaid line plot comparing our model's blended probability density against the market's current YES-side ask per bucket. 11 buckets shown, μ_blend unknownC. Highlighted bucket marks the inspected market.
Ensemble trajectory · last 7d
91 snapshots · open_meteo_ensembleEnsemble forecast trajectory with P10–P90 band. Span 91 snapshots; drift from 13.7C to 10.3C (-3.4C).
Bucket edges · our_p − market_p
positive = we think bucket is underpriced≤7Chighest temperature in warsaw on april 28 2026 7corbelow—0.1%—8Chighest temperature in warsaw on april 28 2026 8c—0.1%—9Chighest temperature in warsaw on april 28 2026 9c—0.9%—10Chighest temperature in warsaw on april 28 2026 10c—11.9%—11Chighest temperature in warsaw on april 28 2026 11c—66.0%—12Chighest temperature in warsaw on april 28 2026 12c—24.0%—13Chighest temperature in warsaw on april 28 2026 13c—4.4%—14Chighest temperature in warsaw on april 28 2026 14c—0.5%—15Chighest temperature in warsaw on april 28 2026 15c—0.5%—16Cyouhighest temperature in warsaw on april 28 2026 16c—0.5%—≥17Chighest temperature in warsaw on april 28 2026 17corhigher—0.4%—