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Market inspector · san-francisco · 2026-05-01
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 50-51°F on May 1?
μ blend—0 forecasts · 12h window
σ blend—combined uncertainty
source spread—disagreement σ across means
peak hour—local · ensemble timing
buckets11same-event siblings
Overlaid line plot comparing our model's blended probability density against the market's current YES-side ask per bucket. 11 buckets shown, μ_blend unknownF. Highlighted bucket marks the inspected market.
Ensemble trajectory · last 7d
92 snapshots · open_meteo_ensembleEnsemble forecast trajectory with P10–P90 band. Span 92 snapshots; drift from 73.4F to 69.2F (-4.2F).
Bucket edges · our_p − market_p
positive = we think bucket is underpriced≤49Fhighest temperature in san francisco on may 1 2026 49forbelow—0.1%—50Fyouhighest temperature in san francisco on may 1 2026 50 51f—0.1%—52Fhighest temperature in san francisco on may 1 2026 52 53f—0.1%—54Fhighest temperature in san francisco on may 1 2026 54 55f—0.1%—56Fhighest temperature in san francisco on may 1 2026 56 57f—0.2%—58Fhighest temperature in san francisco on may 1 2026 58 59f—1.0%—60Fhighest temperature in san francisco on may 1 2026 60 61f—2.8%—62Fhighest temperature in san francisco on may 1 2026 62 63f—25.0%—64Fhighest temperature in san francisco on may 1 2026 64 65f—49.4%—66Fhighest temperature in san francisco on may 1 2026 66 67f—21.0%—≥68Fhighest temperature in san francisco on may 1 2026 68forhigher—5.3%—