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Market inspector · hong-kong · 2026-04-27
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on April 27?
μ blend—0 forecasts · 12h window
σ blend—combined uncertainty
source spread—disagreement σ across means
peak hour—local · ensemble timing
buckets22same-event siblings
Overlaid line plot comparing our model's blended probability density against the market's current YES-side ask per bucket. 22 buckets shown, μ_blend unknownC. Highlighted bucket marks the inspected market.
Ensemble trajectory · last 7d
87 snapshots · open_meteo_ensembleEnsemble forecast trajectory with P10–P90 band. Span 87 snapshots; drift from 27.1C to 27.2C (+0.1C).
Bucket edges · our_p − market_p
positive = we think bucket is underpriced≤17Clowest temperature in hong kong on april 27 2026 17corbelow—0.5%—≤20Chighest temperature in hong kong on april 27 2026 20corbelow—0.1%—18Clowest temperature in hong kong on april 27 2026 18c—0.1%—19Clowest temperature in hong kong on april 27 2026 19c—0.1%—20Clowest temperature in hong kong on april 27 2026 20c—0.1%—21Clowest temperature in hong kong on april 27 2026 21c—0.5%—21Chighest temperature in hong kong on april 27 2026 21c—0.1%—22Clowest temperature in hong kong on april 27 2026 22c—1.3%—22Chighest temperature in hong kong on april 27 2026 22c—0.1%—23Clowest temperature in hong kong on april 27 2026 23c—98.7%—23Cyouhighest temperature in hong kong on april 27 2026 23c—0.1%—24Clowest temperature in hong kong on april 27 2026 24c—0.1%—24Chighest temperature in hong kong on april 27 2026 24c—0.1%—25Clowest temperature in hong kong on april 27 2026 25c—0.1%—25Chighest temperature in hong kong on april 27 2026 25c—0.1%—26Clowest temperature in hong kong on april 27 2026 26c—0.1%—26Chighest temperature in hong kong on april 27 2026 26c—0.1%—27Chighest temperature in hong kong on april 27 2026 27c—99.8%—≥27Clowest temperature in hong kong on april 27 2026 27corhigher—1.3%—28Chighest temperature in hong kong on april 27 2026 28c—0.5%—29Chighest temperature in hong kong on april 27 2026 29c—0.4%—≥30Chighest temperature in hong kong on april 27 2026 30corhigher—0.1%—