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Market inspector · lagos · 2026-05-02
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 32°C on May 2?
μ blend32.51C112 forecasts · 12h window
σ blend0.88combined uncertainty
source spread±0.31Cdisagreement σ across means
peak hour13:00 ±1.0hlocal · ensemble timing
buckets11same-event siblings
Overlaid line plot comparing our model's blended probability density against the market's current YES-side ask per bucket. 11 buckets shown, μ_blend 32.51C. Highlighted bucket marks the inspected market.
Ensemble trajectory · last 7d
97 snapshots · open_meteo_ensembleEnsemble forecast trajectory with P10–P90 band. Span 97 snapshots; drift from 31.4C to 32.5C (+1.0C).
Bucket edges · our_p − market_p
positive = we think bucket is underpriced≤27Chighest temperature in lagos on may 2 2026 27corbelow0.0%0.1%-0.1pp28Chighest temperature in lagos on may 2 2026 28c0.0%1.9%-1.9pp29Chighest temperature in lagos on may 2 2026 29c0.2%3.8%-3.6pp30Chighest temperature in lagos on may 2 2026 30c4.1%1.9%+2.2pp31Chighest temperature in lagos on may 2 2026 31c23.8%14.0%+9.8pp32Cyouhighest temperature in lagos on may 2 2026 32c43.0%22.0%+21.0pp33Chighest temperature in lagos on may 2 2026 33c24.3%26.0%-1.7pp34Chighest temperature in lagos on may 2 2026 34c4.3%33.0%-28.7pp35Chighest temperature in lagos on may 2 2026 35c0.2%8.0%-7.8pp36Chighest temperature in lagos on may 2 2026 36c0.0%1.3%-1.3pp≥37Chighest temperature in lagos on may 2 2026 37corhigher0.0%1.0%-1.0pp