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Market inspector · wellington · 2026-05-03
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on May 3?
μ blend14.79C288 forecasts · 12h window
σ blend0.90combined uncertainty
source spread±0.19Cdisagreement σ across means
peak hour13:00 ±2.7hlocal · ensemble timing
buckets11same-event siblings
Overlaid line plot comparing our model's blended probability density against the market's current YES-side ask per bucket. 11 buckets shown, μ_blend 14.787C. Highlighted bucket marks the inspected market.
Ensemble trajectory · last 7d
75 snapshots · open_meteo_ensembleEnsemble forecast trajectory with P10–P90 band. Span 75 snapshots; drift from 14.8C to 14.3C (-0.4C).
Bucket edges · our_p − market_p
positive = we think bucket is underpriced≤9Chighest temperature in wellington on may 3 2026 9corbelow0.0%0.1%-0.1pp10Chighest temperature in wellington on may 3 2026 10c0.0%0.1%-0.1pp11Chighest temperature in wellington on may 3 2026 11c0.1%0.1%+0.0pp12Chighest temperature in wellington on may 3 2026 12c2.3%0.1%+2.2pp13Chighest temperature in wellington on may 3 2026 13c16.7%0.1%+16.6pp14Cyouhighest temperature in wellington on may 3 2026 14c40.2%0.1%+40.1pp15Chighest temperature in wellington on may 3 2026 15c31.8%20.0%+11.8pp16Chighest temperature in wellington on may 3 2026 16c8.2%59.0%-50.8pp17Chighest temperature in wellington on may 3 2026 17c0.7%19.0%-18.3pp18Chighest temperature in wellington on may 3 2026 18c0.0%1.1%-1.1pp≥19Chighest temperature in wellington on may 3 2026 19corhigher0.0%0.4%-0.4pp