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Market inspector · seoul · 2026-04-28
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on April 28?
μ blend—0 forecasts · 12h window
σ blend—combined uncertainty
source spread—disagreement σ across means
peak hour—local · ensemble timing
buckets22same-event siblings
Overlaid line plot comparing our model's blended probability density against the market's current YES-side ask per bucket. 22 buckets shown, μ_blend unknownC. Highlighted bucket marks the inspected market.
Ensemble trajectory · last 7d
92 snapshots · open_meteo_ensembleEnsemble forecast trajectory with P10–P90 band. Span 92 snapshots; drift from 13.8C to 19.8C (+6.0C).
Bucket edges · our_p − market_p
positive = we think bucket is underpriced≤6Clowest temperature in seoul on april 28 2026 6corbelow—0.2%—≤9Chighest temperature in seoul on april 28 2026 9corbelow—0.1%—7Clowest temperature in seoul on april 28 2026 7c—1.9%—8Clowest temperature in seoul on april 28 2026 8c—2.5%—9Clowest temperature in seoul on april 28 2026 9c—8.4%—10Clowest temperature in seoul on april 28 2026 10c—87.7%—10Chighest temperature in seoul on april 28 2026 10c—0.1%—11Clowest temperature in seoul on april 28 2026 11c—0.1%—11Chighest temperature in seoul on april 28 2026 11c—0.1%—12Clowest temperature in seoul on april 28 2026 12c—0.1%—12Chighest temperature in seoul on april 28 2026 12c—0.1%—13Clowest temperature in seoul on april 28 2026 13c—0.1%—13Chighest temperature in seoul on april 28 2026 13c—0.1%—14Clowest temperature in seoul on april 28 2026 14c—0.1%—14Chighest temperature in seoul on april 28 2026 14c—0.1%—15Clowest temperature in seoul on april 28 2026 15c—0.1%—15Chighest temperature in seoul on april 28 2026 15c—99.8%—≥16Clowest temperature in seoul on april 28 2026 16corhigher—0.1%—16Cyouhighest temperature in seoul on april 28 2026 16c—0.5%—17Chighest temperature in seoul on april 28 2026 17c—0.2%—18Chighest temperature in seoul on april 28 2026 18c—0.3%—≥19Chighest temperature in seoul on april 28 2026 19corhigher—0.1%—