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Market inspector · guangzhou · 2026-04-26
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on April 26?
μ blend—0 forecasts · 12h window
σ blend—combined uncertainty
source spread—disagreement σ across means
peak hour—local · ensemble timing
buckets11same-event siblings
Overlaid line plot comparing our model's blended probability density against the market's current YES-side ask per bucket. 11 buckets shown, μ_blend unknownC. Highlighted bucket marks the inspected market.
Ensemble trajectory · last 7d
53 snapshots · open_meteo_ensembleEnsemble forecast trajectory with P10–P90 band. Span 53 snapshots; drift from 32.2C to 31.9C (-0.3C).
Bucket edges · our_p − market_p
positive = we think bucket is underpriced≤26Chighest temperature in guangzhou on april 26 2026 26corbelow—0.1%—27Chighest temperature in guangzhou on april 26 2026 27c—0.5%—28Chighest temperature in guangzhou on april 26 2026 28c—0.1%—29Chighest temperature in guangzhou on april 26 2026 29c—0.1%—30Chighest temperature in guangzhou on april 26 2026 30c—0.1%—31Chighest temperature in guangzhou on april 26 2026 31c—0.1%—32Chighest temperature in guangzhou on april 26 2026 32c—99.7%—33Chighest temperature in guangzhou on april 26 2026 33c—4.5%—34Chighest temperature in guangzhou on april 26 2026 34c—0.1%—35Cyouhighest temperature in guangzhou on april 26 2026 35c—0.1%—≥36Chighest temperature in guangzhou on april 26 2026 36corhigher—0.1%—