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Market inspector · ankara · 2026-05-02
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 12°C on May 2?
μ blend6.56C104 forecasts · 12h window
σ blend1.30combined uncertainty
source spread±0.67Cdisagreement σ across means
peak hour15:00 ±5.9hlocal · ensemble timing
buckets11same-event siblings
Overlaid line plot comparing our model's blended probability density against the market's current YES-side ask per bucket. 11 buckets shown, μ_blend 6.561C. Highlighted bucket marks the inspected market.
Ensemble trajectory · last 7d
93 snapshots · open_meteo_ensembleEnsemble forecast trajectory with P10–P90 band. Span 93 snapshots; drift from 7.9C to 6.2C (-1.6C).
Bucket edges · our_p − market_p
positive = we think bucket is underpriced≤3Chighest temperature in ankara on may 2 2026 3corbelow0.3%0.1%+0.2pp4Chighest temperature in ankara on may 2 2026 4c9.0%0.1%+8.9pp5Chighest temperature in ankara on may 2 2026 5c21.8%0.1%+21.7pp6Chighest temperature in ankara on may 2 2026 6c30.0%0.1%+29.9pp7Chighest temperature in ankara on may 2 2026 7c23.4%73.0%-49.6pp8Chighest temperature in ankara on may 2 2026 8c10.4%30.0%-19.6pp9Chighest temperature in ankara on may 2 2026 9c2.6%10.0%-7.4pp10Chighest temperature in ankara on may 2 2026 10c0.4%1.4%-1.0pp11Chighest temperature in ankara on may 2 2026 11c0.0%0.2%-0.2pp12Cyouhighest temperature in ankara on may 2 2026 12c0.0%0.1%-0.1pp≥13Chighest temperature in ankara on may 2 2026 13corhigher0.0%0.1%-0.1pp