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Market inspector · toronto · 2026-04-30
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 12°C on April 30?
μ blend—0 forecasts · 12h window
σ blend—combined uncertainty
source spread—disagreement σ across means
peak hour—local · ensemble timing
buckets11same-event siblings
Overlaid line plot comparing our model's blended probability density against the market's current YES-side ask per bucket. 11 buckets shown, μ_blend unknownC. Highlighted bucket marks the inspected market.
Ensemble trajectory · last 7d
73 snapshots · open_meteo_ensembleEnsemble forecast trajectory with P10–P90 band. Span 73 snapshots; drift from 8.0C to 9.3C (+1.3C).
Bucket edges · our_p − market_p
positive = we think bucket is underpriced≤6Chighest temperature in toronto on april 30 2026 6corbelow—0.3%—7Chighest temperature in toronto on april 30 2026 7c—0.3%—8Chighest temperature in toronto on april 30 2026 8c—1.4%—9Chighest temperature in toronto on april 30 2026 9c—3.0%—10Chighest temperature in toronto on april 30 2026 10c—22.0%—11Chighest temperature in toronto on april 30 2026 11c—39.0%—12Cyouhighest temperature in toronto on april 30 2026 12c—27.0%—13Chighest temperature in toronto on april 30 2026 13c—8.1%—14Chighest temperature in toronto on april 30 2026 14c—1.6%—15Chighest temperature in toronto on april 30 2026 15c—0.4%—≥16Chighest temperature in toronto on april 30 2026 16corhigher—0.4%—