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Market inspector · moscow · 2026-05-01
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 4°C or below on May 1?
μ blend—0 forecasts · 12h window
σ blend—combined uncertainty
source spread—disagreement σ across means
peak hour—local · ensemble timing
buckets11same-event siblings
Overlaid line plot comparing our model's blended probability density against the market's current YES-side ask per bucket. 11 buckets shown, μ_blend unknownC. Highlighted bucket marks the inspected market.
Ensemble trajectory · last 7d
89 snapshots · open_meteo_ensembleEnsemble forecast trajectory with P10–P90 band. Span 89 snapshots; drift from 7.1C to 7.9C (+0.8C).
Bucket edges · our_p − market_p
positive = we think bucket is underpriced≤4Cyouhighest temperature in moscow on may 1 2026 4corbelow—0.1%—5Chighest temperature in moscow on may 1 2026 5c—0.1%—6Chighest temperature in moscow on may 1 2026 6c—0.1%—7Chighest temperature in moscow on may 1 2026 7c—18.0%—8Chighest temperature in moscow on may 1 2026 8c—60.0%—9Chighest temperature in moscow on may 1 2026 9c—39.0%—10Chighest temperature in moscow on may 1 2026 10c—5.0%—11Chighest temperature in moscow on may 1 2026 11c—0.7%—12Chighest temperature in moscow on may 1 2026 12c—0.8%—13Chighest temperature in moscow on may 1 2026 13c—0.5%—≥14Chighest temperature in moscow on may 1 2026 14corhigher—0.5%—