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Market inspector · milan · 2026-05-02
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 18°C on May 2?
μ blend22.53C112 forecasts · 12h window
σ blend1.25combined uncertainty
source spread±0.35Cdisagreement σ across means
peak hour16:00 ±0.8hlocal · ensemble timing
buckets11same-event siblings
Overlaid line plot comparing our model's blended probability density against the market's current YES-side ask per bucket. 11 buckets shown, μ_blend 22.526C. Highlighted bucket marks the inspected market.
Ensemble trajectory · last 7d
94 snapshots · open_meteo_ensembleEnsemble forecast trajectory with P10–P90 band. Span 94 snapshots; drift from 21.5C to 22.8C (+1.3C).
Bucket edges · our_p − market_p
positive = we think bucket is underpriced≤16Chighest temperature in milan on may 2 2026 16corbelow0.0%0.1%-0.1pp17Chighest temperature in milan on may 2 2026 17c0.0%0.1%-0.1pp18Cyouhighest temperature in milan on may 2 2026 18c0.2%0.1%+0.1pp19Chighest temperature in milan on may 2 2026 19c1.9%0.1%+1.8pp20Chighest temperature in milan on may 2 2026 20c8.9%0.1%+8.8pp21Chighest temperature in milan on may 2 2026 21c22.6%0.3%+22.3pp22Chighest temperature in milan on may 2 2026 22c31.1%4.0%+27.1pp23Chighest temperature in milan on may 2 2026 23c23.3%20.0%+3.3pp24Chighest temperature in milan on may 2 2026 24c9.5%65.0%-55.5pp25Chighest temperature in milan on may 2 2026 25c2.1%21.0%-18.9pp≥26Chighest temperature in milan on may 2 2026 26corhigher0.3%3.0%-2.7pp