00
OVERVIEW
· all generations · single screen · live00:52CEST
live
Market inspector · toronto · 2026-04-28
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 11°C on April 28?
μ blend—0 forecasts · 12h window
σ blend—combined uncertainty
source spread—disagreement σ across means
peak hour—local · ensemble timing
buckets11same-event siblings
Overlaid line plot comparing our model's blended probability density against the market's current YES-side ask per bucket. 11 buckets shown, μ_blend unknownC. Highlighted bucket marks the inspected market.
Ensemble trajectory · last 7d
91 snapshots · open_meteo_ensembleEnsemble forecast trajectory with P10–P90 band. Span 91 snapshots; drift from 18.9C to 15.8C (-3.1C).
Bucket edges · our_p − market_p
positive = we think bucket is underpriced≤9Chighest temperature in toronto on april 28 2026 9corbelow—0.1%—10Chighest temperature in toronto on april 28 2026 10c—0.1%—11Cyouhighest temperature in toronto on april 28 2026 11c—0.1%—12Chighest temperature in toronto on april 28 2026 12c—0.1%—13Chighest temperature in toronto on april 28 2026 13c—0.1%—14Chighest temperature in toronto on april 28 2026 14c—0.2%—15Chighest temperature in toronto on april 28 2026 15c—4.7%—16Chighest temperature in toronto on april 28 2026 16c—20.0%—17Chighest temperature in toronto on april 28 2026 17c—23.0%—18Chighest temperature in toronto on april 28 2026 18c—41.0%—≥19Chighest temperature in toronto on april 28 2026 19corhigher—24.0%—