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Market inspector · paris · 2026-05-02
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 18°C on May 2?
μ blend23.79C104 forecasts · 12h window
σ blend1.20combined uncertainty
source spread±0.47Cdisagreement σ across means
peak hour16:00 ±0.8hlocal · ensemble timing
buckets22same-event siblings
Overlaid line plot comparing our model's blended probability density against the market's current YES-side ask per bucket. 22 buckets shown, μ_blend 23.791C. Highlighted bucket marks the inspected market.
Ensemble trajectory · last 7d
98 snapshots · open_meteo_ensembleEnsemble forecast trajectory with P10–P90 band. Span 98 snapshots; drift from 23.0C to 24.3C (+1.3C).
Bucket edges · our_p − market_p
positive = we think bucket is underpriced≤9Clowest temperature in paris on may 2 2026 9corbelow0.0%0.1%-0.1pp≤18Chighest temperature in paris on may 2 2026 18corbelow0.0%0.1%-0.1pp10Clowest temperature in paris on may 2 2026 10c0.0%0.1%-0.1pp11Clowest temperature in paris on may 2 2026 11c0.0%0.7%-0.7pp12Clowest temperature in paris on may 2 2026 12c0.0%0.3%-0.3pp13Clowest temperature in paris on may 2 2026 13c0.0%99.6%-99.6pp14Clowest temperature in paris on may 2 2026 14c0.0%0.1%-0.1pp15Clowest temperature in paris on may 2 2026 15c0.0%0.1%-0.1pp16Clowest temperature in paris on may 2 2026 16c0.0%0.1%-0.1pp17Clowest temperature in paris on may 2 2026 17c0.0%0.1%-0.1pp18Cyoulowest temperature in paris on may 2 2026 18c0.0%0.1%-0.1pp≥19Clowest temperature in paris on may 2 2026 19corhigher100.0%0.1%+99.9pp19Chighest temperature in paris on may 2 2026 19c0.1%0.1%-0.0pp20Chighest temperature in paris on may 2 2026 20c0.9%0.1%+0.8pp21Chighest temperature in paris on may 2 2026 21c5.8%0.1%+5.7pp22Chighest temperature in paris on may 2 2026 22c18.7%0.1%+18.6pp23Chighest temperature in paris on may 2 2026 23c31.4%1.8%+29.6pp24Chighest temperature in paris on may 2 2026 24c27.4%7.0%+20.4pp25Chighest temperature in paris on may 2 2026 25c12.4%46.0%-33.6pp26Chighest temperature in paris on may 2 2026 26c2.9%43.0%-40.1pp27Chighest temperature in paris on may 2 2026 27c0.4%3.9%-3.5pp≥28Chighest temperature in paris on may 2 2026 28corhigher0.0%1.8%-1.8pp