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Market inspector · san-francisco · 2026-05-02
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 49°F or below on May 2?
μ blend61.14F112 forecasts · 12h window
σ blend1.95combined uncertainty
source spread±1.68Fdisagreement σ across means
peak hour14:00 ±1.6hlocal · ensemble timing
buckets11same-event siblings
Overlaid line plot comparing our model's blended probability density against the market's current YES-side ask per bucket. 11 buckets shown, μ_blend 61.143F. Highlighted bucket marks the inspected market.
Ensemble trajectory · last 7d
95 snapshots · open_meteo_ensembleEnsemble forecast trajectory with P10–P90 band. Span 95 snapshots; drift from 62.0F to 63.6F (+1.5F).
Bucket edges · our_p − market_p
positive = we think bucket is underpriced≤49Fyouhighest temperature in san francisco on may 2 2026 49forbelow0.0%0.1%-0.1pp50Fhighest temperature in san francisco on may 2 2026 50 51f0.0%0.1%-0.1pp52Fhighest temperature in san francisco on may 2 2026 52 53f0.0%0.1%-0.1pp54Fhighest temperature in san francisco on may 2 2026 54 55f0.1%0.3%-0.2pp56Fhighest temperature in san francisco on may 2 2026 56 57f1.3%1.9%-0.6pp58Fhighest temperature in san francisco on may 2 2026 58 59f8.3%24.0%-15.8pp60Fhighest temperature in san francisco on may 2 2026 60 61f19.2%55.0%-35.8pp62Fhighest temperature in san francisco on may 2 2026 62 63f16.0%13.0%+3.0pp64Fhighest temperature in san francisco on may 2 2026 64 65f4.8%9.0%-4.2pp66Fhighest temperature in san francisco on may 2 2026 66 67f0.5%1.0%-0.5pp≥68Fhighest temperature in san francisco on may 2 2026 68forhigher0.0%0.2%-0.2pp