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Market inspector · miami · 2026-05-02
Will the highest temperature in Miami be 83°F or below on May 2?
μ blend89.08F104 forecasts · 12h window
σ blend1.95combined uncertainty
source spread±2.18Fdisagreement σ across means
peak hour16:00 ±0.8hlocal · ensemble timing
buckets22same-event siblings
Overlaid line plot comparing our model's blended probability density against the market's current YES-side ask per bucket. 22 buckets shown, μ_blend 89.085F. Highlighted bucket marks the inspected market.
Ensemble trajectory · last 7d
96 snapshots · open_meteo_ensembleEnsemble forecast trajectory with P10–P90 band. Span 96 snapshots; drift from 87.6F to 89.8F (+2.2F).
Bucket edges · our_p − market_p
positive = we think bucket is underpriced≤71Flowest temperature in miami on may 2 2026 71forbelow0.0%1.0%-1.0pp≤83Fyouhighest temperature in miami on may 2 2026 83forbelow0.1%0.5%-0.4pp72Flowest temperature in miami on may 2 2026 72 73f0.0%1.0%-1.0pp74Flowest temperature in miami on may 2 2026 74 75f0.0%2.9%-2.9pp76Flowest temperature in miami on may 2 2026 76 77f0.0%98.9%-98.9pp78Flowest temperature in miami on may 2 2026 78 79f0.0%0.1%-0.1pp80Flowest temperature in miami on may 2 2026 80 81f0.0%0.1%-0.1pp82Flowest temperature in miami on may 2 2026 82 83f0.1%0.1%-0.0pp84Flowest temperature in miami on may 2 2026 84 85f1.3%0.1%+1.2pp84Fhighest temperature in miami on may 2 2026 84 85f1.3%0.3%+1.0pp86Flowest temperature in miami on may 2 2026 86 87f8.6%0.1%+8.5pp86Fhighest temperature in miami on may 2 2026 86 87f8.6%0.5%+8.1pp88Flowest temperature in miami on may 2 2026 88 89f19.4%0.1%+19.3pp88Fhighest temperature in miami on may 2 2026 88 89f19.4%3.0%+16.4pp≥90Flowest temperature in miami on may 2 2026 90forhigher31.9%0.1%+31.8pp90Fhighest temperature in miami on may 2 2026 90 91f15.7%21.0%-5.3pp92Fhighest temperature in miami on may 2 2026 92 93f4.5%42.0%-37.5pp94Fhighest temperature in miami on may 2 2026 94 95f0.5%35.6%-35.1pp96Fhighest temperature in miami on may 2 2026 96 97f0.0%2.5%-2.5pp98Fhighest temperature in miami on may 2 2026 98 99f0.0%1.0%-1.0pp100Fhighest temperature in miami on may 2 2026 100 101f0.0%0.6%-0.6pp≥102Fhighest temperature in miami on may 2 2026 102forhigher0.0%0.1%-0.1pp