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OVERVIEW
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Market inspector · london · 2026-04-28
Will the lowest temperature in London be 13°C or higher on April 28?
μ blend—0 forecasts · 12h window
σ blend—combined uncertainty
source spread—disagreement σ across means
peak hour—local · ensemble timing
buckets22same-event siblings
Overlaid line plot comparing our model's blended probability density against the market's current YES-side ask per bucket. 22 buckets shown, μ_blend unknownC. Highlighted bucket marks the inspected market.
Ensemble trajectory · last 7d
93 snapshots · open_meteo_ensembleEnsemble forecast trajectory with P10–P90 band. Span 93 snapshots; drift from 16.4C to 15.5C (-0.8C).
Bucket edges · our_p − market_p
positive = we think bucket is underpriced≤9Chighest temperature in london on april 28 2026 9corbelow—0.1%—≤3Clowest temperature in london on april 28 2026 3corbelow—0.6%—4Clowest temperature in london on april 28 2026 4c—0.6%—5Clowest temperature in london on april 28 2026 5c—0.7%—6Clowest temperature in london on april 28 2026 6c—0.6%—7Clowest temperature in london on april 28 2026 7c—0.9%—8Clowest temperature in london on april 28 2026 8c—16.0%—9Clowest temperature in london on april 28 2026 9c—92.1%—10Chighest temperature in london on april 28 2026 10c—0.1%—10Clowest temperature in london on april 28 2026 10c—0.1%—11Chighest temperature in london on april 28 2026 11c—0.1%—11Clowest temperature in london on april 28 2026 11c—0.1%—12Chighest temperature in london on april 28 2026 12c—0.2%—12Clowest temperature in london on april 28 2026 12c—0.1%—13Chighest temperature in london on april 28 2026 13c—0.5%—≥13Cyoulowest temperature in london on april 28 2026 13corhigher—0.1%—14Chighest temperature in london on april 28 2026 14c—1.5%—15Chighest temperature in london on april 28 2026 15c—17.0%—16Chighest temperature in london on april 28 2026 16c—53.0%—17Chighest temperature in london on april 28 2026 17c—31.5%—18Chighest temperature in london on april 28 2026 18c—2.8%—≥19Chighest temperature in london on april 28 2026 19corhigher—0.8%—