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Market inspector · tel-aviv · 2026-05-02
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 25°C on May 2?
μ blend28.39C104 forecasts · 12h window
σ blend0.95combined uncertainty
source spread±0.67Cdisagreement σ across means
peak hour14:00 ±1.0hlocal · ensemble timing
buckets11same-event siblings
Overlaid line plot comparing our model's blended probability density against the market's current YES-side ask per bucket. 11 buckets shown, μ_blend 28.392C. Highlighted bucket marks the inspected market.
Ensemble trajectory · last 7d
90 snapshots · open_meteo_ensembleEnsemble forecast trajectory with P10–P90 band. Span 90 snapshots; drift from 26.9C to 27.4C (+0.5C).
Bucket edges · our_p − market_p
positive = we think bucket is underpriced≤21Chighest temperature in tel aviv on may 2 2026 21corbelow0.0%0.1%-0.1pp22Chighest temperature in tel aviv on may 2 2026 22c0.0%0.1%-0.1pp23Chighest temperature in tel aviv on may 2 2026 23c0.0%0.1%-0.1pp24Chighest temperature in tel aviv on may 2 2026 24c0.0%0.1%-0.1pp25Cyouhighest temperature in tel aviv on may 2 2026 25c0.6%0.1%+0.5pp26Chighest temperature in tel aviv on may 2 2026 26c6.6%0.1%+6.5pp27Chighest temperature in tel aviv on may 2 2026 27c26.8%0.1%+26.7pp28Chighest temperature in tel aviv on may 2 2026 28c39.7%0.1%+39.6pp29Chighest temperature in tel aviv on may 2 2026 29c21.6%65.0%-43.4pp30Chighest temperature in tel aviv on may 2 2026 30c4.3%37.0%-32.7pp≥31Chighest temperature in tel aviv on may 2 2026 31corhigher0.3%11.0%-10.7pp