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Market inspector · sao-paulo · 2026-04-29
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 33°C on April 29?
μ blend—0 forecasts · 12h window
σ blend—combined uncertainty
source spread—disagreement σ across means
peak hour—local · ensemble timing
buckets11same-event siblings
Overlaid line plot comparing our model's blended probability density against the market's current YES-side ask per bucket. 11 buckets shown, μ_blend unknownC. Highlighted bucket marks the inspected market.
Ensemble trajectory · last 7d
99 snapshots · open_meteo_ensembleEnsemble forecast trajectory with P10–P90 band. Span 99 snapshots; drift from 30.6C to 28.3C (-2.3C).
Bucket edges · our_p − market_p
positive = we think bucket is underpriced≤25Chighest temperature in sao paulo on april 29 2026 25corbelow—0.8%—26Chighest temperature in sao paulo on april 29 2026 26c—1.9%—27Chighest temperature in sao paulo on april 29 2026 27c—13.0%—28Chighest temperature in sao paulo on april 29 2026 28c—30.0%—29Chighest temperature in sao paulo on april 29 2026 29c—41.0%—30Chighest temperature in sao paulo on april 29 2026 30c—23.0%—31Chighest temperature in sao paulo on april 29 2026 31c—2.5%—32Chighest temperature in sao paulo on april 29 2026 32c—0.7%—33Cyouhighest temperature in sao paulo on april 29 2026 33c—0.4%—34Chighest temperature in sao paulo on april 29 2026 34c—0.1%—≥35Chighest temperature in sao paulo on april 29 2026 35corhigher—0.4%—