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OVERVIEW
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Market inspector · london · 2026-04-26
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on April 26?
μ blend—0 forecasts · 12h window
σ blend—combined uncertainty
source spread—disagreement σ across means
peak hour—local · ensemble timing
buckets22same-event siblings
Overlaid line plot comparing our model's blended probability density against the market's current YES-side ask per bucket. 22 buckets shown, μ_blend unknownC. Highlighted bucket marks the inspected market.
Ensemble trajectory · last 7d
54 snapshots · open_meteo_ensembleEnsemble forecast trajectory with P10–P90 band. Span 54 snapshots; drift from 18.9C to 19.9C (+1.0C).
Bucket edges · our_p − market_p
positive = we think bucket is underpriced≤3Clowest temperature in london on april 26 2026 3corbelow—0.1%—≤12Chighest temperature in london on april 26 2026 12corbelow—0.1%—4Clowest temperature in london on april 26 2026 4c—0.2%—5Clowest temperature in london on april 26 2026 5c—0.6%—6Clowest temperature in london on april 26 2026 6c—0.4%—7Clowest temperature in london on april 26 2026 7c—2.0%—8Clowest temperature in london on april 26 2026 8c—99.3%—9Clowest temperature in london on april 26 2026 9c—0.1%—10Clowest temperature in london on april 26 2026 10c—0.1%—11Clowest temperature in london on april 26 2026 11c—0.1%—12Clowest temperature in london on april 26 2026 12c—0.1%—≥13Clowest temperature in london on april 26 2026 13corhigher—0.1%—13Chighest temperature in london on april 26 2026 13c—0.1%—14Chighest temperature in london on april 26 2026 14c—0.1%—15Chighest temperature in london on april 26 2026 15c—0.2%—16Cyouhighest temperature in london on april 26 2026 16c—5.0%—17Chighest temperature in london on april 26 2026 17c—37.0%—18Chighest temperature in london on april 26 2026 18c—44.0%—19Chighest temperature in london on april 26 2026 19c—20.0%—20Chighest temperature in london on april 26 2026 20c—2.7%—21Chighest temperature in london on april 26 2026 21c—0.6%—≥22Chighest temperature in london on april 26 2026 22corhigher—0.2%—