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Market inspector · dallas · 2026-04-26
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 78-79°F on April 26?
μ blend—0 forecasts · 12h window
σ blend—combined uncertainty
source spread—disagreement σ across means
peak hour—local · ensemble timing
buckets11same-event siblings
Overlaid line plot comparing our model's blended probability density against the market's current YES-side ask per bucket. 11 buckets shown, μ_blend unknownF. Highlighted bucket marks the inspected market.
Ensemble trajectory · last 7d
52 snapshots · open_meteo_ensembleEnsemble forecast trajectory with P10–P90 band. Span 52 snapshots; drift from 92.4F to 86.5F (-5.9F).
Bucket edges · our_p − market_p
positive = we think bucket is underpriced≤67Fhighest temperature in dallas on april 26 2026 67forbelow—0.1%—68Fhighest temperature in dallas on april 26 2026 68 69f—0.1%—70Fhighest temperature in dallas on april 26 2026 70 71f—0.1%—72Fhighest temperature in dallas on april 26 2026 72 73f—0.1%—74Fhighest temperature in dallas on april 26 2026 74 75f—0.1%—76Fhighest temperature in dallas on april 26 2026 76 77f—0.1%—78Fyouhighest temperature in dallas on april 26 2026 78 79f—0.2%—80Fhighest temperature in dallas on april 26 2026 80 81f—0.7%—82Fhighest temperature in dallas on april 26 2026 82 83f—0.5%—84Fhighest temperature in dallas on april 26 2026 84 85f—20.0%—≥86Fhighest temperature in dallas on april 26 2026 86forhigher—83.0%—