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Market inspector · tokyo · 2026-04-27
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on April 27?
μ blend—0 forecasts · 12h window
σ blend—combined uncertainty
source spread—disagreement σ across means
peak hour—local · ensemble timing
buckets22same-event siblings
Overlaid line plot comparing our model's blended probability density against the market's current YES-side ask per bucket. 22 buckets shown, μ_blend unknownC. Highlighted bucket marks the inspected market.
Ensemble trajectory · last 7d
87 snapshots · open_meteo_ensembleEnsemble forecast trajectory with P10–P90 band. Span 87 snapshots; drift from 18.0C to 18.2C (+0.2C).
Bucket edges · our_p − market_p
positive = we think bucket is underpriced≤11Chighest temperature in tokyo on april 27 2026 11corbelow—0.1%—≤9Clowest temperature in tokyo on april 27 2026 9corbelow—0.2%—10Clowest temperature in tokyo on april 27 2026 10c—0.5%—11Clowest temperature in tokyo on april 27 2026 11c—0.8%—12Chighest temperature in tokyo on april 27 2026 12c—0.1%—12Clowest temperature in tokyo on april 27 2026 12c—0.9%—13Chighest temperature in tokyo on april 27 2026 13c—0.1%—13Clowest temperature in tokyo on april 27 2026 13c—1.0%—14Chighest temperature in tokyo on april 27 2026 14c—0.1%—14Clowest temperature in tokyo on april 27 2026 14c—98.7%—15Chighest temperature in tokyo on april 27 2026 15c—0.1%—15Clowest temperature in tokyo on april 27 2026 15c—0.1%—16Chighest temperature in tokyo on april 27 2026 16c—0.1%—16Clowest temperature in tokyo on april 27 2026 16c—0.1%—17Chighest temperature in tokyo on april 27 2026 17c—0.1%—17Cyoulowest temperature in tokyo on april 27 2026 17c—0.1%—18Chighest temperature in tokyo on april 27 2026 18c—65.0%—18Clowest temperature in tokyo on april 27 2026 18c—0.1%—19Chighest temperature in tokyo on april 27 2026 19c—29.0%—≥19Clowest temperature in tokyo on april 27 2026 19corhigher—0.1%—20Chighest temperature in tokyo on april 27 2026 20c———≥21Chighest temperature in tokyo on april 27 2026 21corhigher—0.1%—