00
OVERVIEW
· all generations · single screen · live23:42CEST
live
Market inspector · shenzhen · 2026-05-02
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on May 2?
μ blend28.04C112 forecasts · 12h window
σ blend0.59combined uncertainty
source spread±0.77Cdisagreement σ across means
peak hour14:00 ±1.1hlocal · ensemble timing
buckets11same-event siblings
Overlaid line plot comparing our model's blended probability density against the market's current YES-side ask per bucket. 11 buckets shown, μ_blend 28.04C. Highlighted bucket marks the inspected market.
Ensemble trajectory · last 7d
92 snapshots · open_meteo_ensembleEnsemble forecast trajectory with P10–P90 band. Span 92 snapshots; drift from 27.7C to 28.9C (+1.3C).
Bucket edges · our_p − market_p
positive = we think bucket is underpriced≤22Chighest temperature in shenzhen on may 2 2026 22corbelow0.0%0.1%-0.1pp23Chighest temperature in shenzhen on may 2 2026 23c0.0%0.1%-0.1pp24Chighest temperature in shenzhen on may 2 2026 24c0.0%0.1%-0.1pp25Chighest temperature in shenzhen on may 2 2026 25c0.0%0.1%-0.1pp26Chighest temperature in shenzhen on may 2 2026 26c3.8%0.1%+3.7pp27Chighest temperature in shenzhen on may 2 2026 27c43.5%0.1%+43.4pp28Chighest temperature in shenzhen on may 2 2026 28c47.6%0.1%+47.5pp29Chighest temperature in shenzhen on may 2 2026 29c5.0%——30Chighest temperature in shenzhen on may 2 2026 30c0.0%0.6%-0.6pp31Cyouhighest temperature in shenzhen on may 2 2026 31c0.0%0.2%-0.2pp≥32Chighest temperature in shenzhen on may 2 2026 32corhigher0.0%0.1%-0.1pp