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Market inspector · cape-town · 2026-04-23
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 22°C on April 23?
μ blend—0 forecasts · 12h window
σ blend—combined uncertainty
source spread—disagreement σ across means
peak hour—local · ensemble timing
buckets11same-event siblings
Overlaid line plot comparing our model's blended probability density against the market's current YES-side ask per bucket. 11 buckets shown, μ_blend unknownC. Highlighted bucket marks the inspected market.
Ensemble trajectory · last 7d
0 snapshots · open_meteo_ensembleNot enough ensemble history yet for a trajectory chart (need ≥2 points).
Bucket edges · our_p − market_p
positive = we think bucket is underpriced≤17Chighest temperature in cape town on april 23 2026 17corbelow—0.1%—18Chighest temperature in cape town on april 23 2026 18c—0.1%—19Chighest temperature in cape town on april 23 2026 19c—0.2%—20Chighest temperature in cape town on april 23 2026 20c—0.2%—21Chighest temperature in cape town on april 23 2026 21c—4.0%—22Cyouhighest temperature in cape town on april 23 2026 22c—53.0%—23Chighest temperature in cape town on april 23 2026 23c—56.0%—24Chighest temperature in cape town on april 23 2026 24c—8.0%—25Chighest temperature in cape town on april 23 2026 25c—0.5%—26Chighest temperature in cape town on april 23 2026 26c—0.4%—≥27Chighest temperature in cape town on april 23 2026 27corhigher—0.2%—