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Market inspector · lucknow · 2026-04-27
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 43°C on April 27?
μ blend—0 forecasts · 12h window
σ blend—combined uncertainty
source spread—disagreement σ across means
peak hour—local · ensemble timing
buckets11same-event siblings
Overlaid line plot comparing our model's blended probability density against the market's current YES-side ask per bucket. 11 buckets shown, μ_blend unknownC. Highlighted bucket marks the inspected market.
Ensemble trajectory · last 7d
87 snapshots · open_meteo_ensembleEnsemble forecast trajectory with P10–P90 band. Span 87 snapshots; drift from 47.9C to 45.5C (-2.4C).
Bucket edges · our_p − market_p
positive = we think bucket is underpriced≤42Chighest temperature in lucknow on april 27 2026 42corbelow—99.9%—43Cyouhighest temperature in lucknow on april 27 2026 43c—1.0%—44Chighest temperature in lucknow on april 27 2026 44c—0.2%—45Chighest temperature in lucknow on april 27 2026 45c—0.1%—46Chighest temperature in lucknow on april 27 2026 46c—0.1%—47Chighest temperature in lucknow on april 27 2026 47c—0.1%—48Chighest temperature in lucknow on april 27 2026 48c—0.1%—49Chighest temperature in lucknow on april 27 2026 49c—0.1%—50Chighest temperature in lucknow on april 27 2026 50c—0.1%—51Chighest temperature in lucknow on april 27 2026 51c—0.1%—≥52Chighest temperature in lucknow on april 27 2026 52corhigher—0.1%—