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Market inspector · warsaw · 2026-04-27
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 8°C or below on April 27?
μ blend—0 forecasts · 12h window
σ blend—combined uncertainty
source spread—disagreement σ across means
peak hour—local · ensemble timing
buckets11same-event siblings
Overlaid line plot comparing our model's blended probability density against the market's current YES-side ask per bucket. 11 buckets shown, μ_blend unknownC. Highlighted bucket marks the inspected market.
Ensemble trajectory · last 7d
85 snapshots · open_meteo_ensembleEnsemble forecast trajectory with P10–P90 band. Span 85 snapshots; drift from 15.7C to 16.0C (+0.3C).
Bucket edges · our_p − market_p
positive = we think bucket is underpriced≤8Cyouhighest temperature in warsaw on april 27 2026 8corbelow—0.1%—9Chighest temperature in warsaw on april 27 2026 9c—0.1%—10Chighest temperature in warsaw on april 27 2026 10c—0.1%—11Chighest temperature in warsaw on april 27 2026 11c—0.1%—12Chighest temperature in warsaw on april 27 2026 12c—0.9%—13Chighest temperature in warsaw on april 27 2026 13c—31.0%—14Chighest temperature in warsaw on april 27 2026 14c—65.0%—15Chighest temperature in warsaw on april 27 2026 15c—10.0%—16Chighest temperature in warsaw on april 27 2026 16c—2.0%—17Chighest temperature in warsaw on april 27 2026 17c—0.4%—≥18Chighest temperature in warsaw on april 27 2026 18corhigher—0.5%—