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Market inspector · helsinki · 2026-05-02
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 13°C or below on May 2?
μ blend17.55C104 forecasts · 12h window
σ blend1.23combined uncertainty
source spread±0.81Cdisagreement σ across means
peak hour13:00 ±0.7hlocal · ensemble timing
buckets11same-event siblings
Overlaid line plot comparing our model's blended probability density against the market's current YES-side ask per bucket. 11 buckets shown, μ_blend 17.546C. Highlighted bucket marks the inspected market.
Ensemble trajectory · last 7d
97 snapshots · open_meteo_ensembleEnsemble forecast trajectory with P10–P90 band. Span 97 snapshots; drift from 16.0C to 16.4C (+0.4C).
Bucket edges · our_p − market_p
positive = we think bucket is underpriced≤13Cyouhighest temperature in helsinki on may 2 2026 13corbelow0.0%0.1%-0.1pp14Chighest temperature in helsinki on may 2 2026 14c1.7%0.1%+1.6pp15Chighest temperature in helsinki on may 2 2026 15c8.5%0.1%+8.4pp16Chighest temperature in helsinki on may 2 2026 16c22.4%0.1%+22.3pp17Chighest temperature in helsinki on may 2 2026 17c31.5%0.1%+31.4pp18Chighest temperature in helsinki on may 2 2026 18c23.7%0.1%+23.6pp19Chighest temperature in helsinki on may 2 2026 19c9.6%0.1%+9.5pp20Chighest temperature in helsinki on may 2 2026 20c2.1%33.0%-30.9pp21Chighest temperature in helsinki on may 2 2026 21c0.2%69.0%-68.8pp22Chighest temperature in helsinki on may 2 2026 22c0.0%4.0%-4.0pp≥23Chighest temperature in helsinki on may 2 2026 23corhigher0.0%1.0%-1.0pp