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Market inspector · miami · 2026-04-28
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on April 28?
μ blend—0 forecasts · 12h window
σ blend—combined uncertainty
source spread—disagreement σ across means
peak hour—local · ensemble timing
buckets22same-event siblings
Overlaid line plot comparing our model's blended probability density against the market's current YES-side ask per bucket. 22 buckets shown, μ_blend unknownF. Highlighted bucket marks the inspected market.
Ensemble trajectory · last 7d
92 snapshots · open_meteo_ensembleEnsemble forecast trajectory with P10–P90 band. Span 92 snapshots; drift from 84.5F to 83.1F (-1.4F).
Bucket edges · our_p − market_p
positive = we think bucket is underpriced≤73Fhighest temperature in miami on april 28 2026 73forbelow—0.1%—≤67Flowest temperature in miami on april 28 2026 67forbelow—0.8%—68Flowest temperature in miami on april 28 2026 68 69f—0.6%—70Flowest temperature in miami on april 28 2026 70 71f—8.0%—72Flowest temperature in miami on april 28 2026 72 73f—46.0%—74Fhighest temperature in miami on april 28 2026 74 75f—0.1%—74Fyoulowest temperature in miami on april 28 2026 74 75f—90.0%—76Fhighest temperature in miami on april 28 2026 76 77f—0.1%—76Flowest temperature in miami on april 28 2026 76 77f—0.1%—78Fhighest temperature in miami on april 28 2026 78 79f—0.9%—78Flowest temperature in miami on april 28 2026 78 79f—0.1%—80Fhighest temperature in miami on april 28 2026 80 81f—0.7%—80Flowest temperature in miami on april 28 2026 80 81f—0.1%—82Fhighest temperature in miami on april 28 2026 82 83f—10.0%—82Flowest temperature in miami on april 28 2026 82 83f—0.1%—84Fhighest temperature in miami on april 28 2026 84 85f—65.0%—84Flowest temperature in miami on april 28 2026 84 85f—0.1%—86Fhighest temperature in miami on april 28 2026 86 87f—32.0%—≥86Flowest temperature in miami on april 28 2026 86forhigher—0.1%—88Fhighest temperature in miami on april 28 2026 88 89f—5.6%—90Fhighest temperature in miami on april 28 2026 90 91f—1.2%—≥92Fhighest temperature in miami on april 28 2026 92forhigher—0.7%—