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Market inspector · munich · 2026-04-29
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 10°C or below on April 29?
μ blend—0 forecasts · 12h window
σ blend—combined uncertainty
source spread—disagreement σ across means
peak hour—local · ensemble timing
buckets11same-event siblings
Overlaid line plot comparing our model's blended probability density against the market's current YES-side ask per bucket. 11 buckets shown, μ_blend unknownC. Highlighted bucket marks the inspected market.
Ensemble trajectory · last 7d
98 snapshots · open_meteo_ensembleEnsemble forecast trajectory with P10–P90 band. Span 98 snapshots; drift from 17.8C to 15.7C (-2.2C).
Bucket edges · our_p − market_p
positive = we think bucket is underpriced≤10Cyouhighest temperature in munich on april 29 2026 10corbelow—0.1%—11Chighest temperature in munich on april 29 2026 11c—0.1%—12Chighest temperature in munich on april 29 2026 12c—0.1%—13Chighest temperature in munich on april 29 2026 13c—0.1%—14Chighest temperature in munich on april 29 2026 14c—0.1%—15Chighest temperature in munich on april 29 2026 15c—0.2%—16Chighest temperature in munich on april 29 2026 16c—1.7%—17Chighest temperature in munich on april 29 2026 17c—30.0%—18Chighest temperature in munich on april 29 2026 18c—67.0%—19Chighest temperature in munich on april 29 2026 19c—5.0%—≥20Chighest temperature in munich on april 29 2026 20corhigher—1.8%—