00
OVERVIEW
· all generations · single screen · live23:39CEST
live
Market inspector · amsterdam · 2026-05-03
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on May 3?
μ blend16.71C272 forecasts · 12h window
σ blend1.15combined uncertainty
source spread±0.72Cdisagreement σ across means
peak hour11:00 ±3.2hlocal · ensemble timing
buckets11same-event siblings
Overlaid line plot comparing our model's blended probability density against the market's current YES-side ask per bucket. 11 buckets shown, μ_blend 16.71C. Highlighted bucket marks the inspected market.
Ensemble trajectory · last 7d
75 snapshots · open_meteo_ensembleEnsemble forecast trajectory with P10–P90 band. Span 75 snapshots; drift from 16.2C to 16.1C (-0.1C).
Bucket edges · our_p − market_p
positive = we think bucket is underpriced≤11Chighest temperature in amsterdam on may 3 2026 11corbelow0.0%0.2%-0.2pp12Chighest temperature in amsterdam on may 3 2026 12c0.1%0.1%-0.0pp13Chighest temperature in amsterdam on may 3 2026 13c0.9%0.3%+0.6pp14Chighest temperature in amsterdam on may 3 2026 14c5.9%0.3%+5.7pp15Chighest temperature in amsterdam on may 3 2026 15c20.0%0.9%+19.1pp16Chighest temperature in amsterdam on may 3 2026 16c33.1%9.0%+24.1pp17Chighest temperature in amsterdam on may 3 2026 17c26.9%41.0%-14.1pp18Chighest temperature in amsterdam on may 3 2026 18c10.8%47.0%-36.2pp19Cyouhighest temperature in amsterdam on may 3 2026 19c2.1%12.0%-9.9pp20Chighest temperature in amsterdam on may 3 2026 20c0.2%3.8%-3.6pp≥21Chighest temperature in amsterdam on may 3 2026 21corhigher0.0%0.9%-0.9pp