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Market inspector · lucknow · 2026-04-28
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 48°C on April 28?
μ blend—0 forecasts · 12h window
σ blend—combined uncertainty
source spread—disagreement σ across means
peak hour—local · ensemble timing
buckets11same-event siblings
Overlaid line plot comparing our model's blended probability density against the market's current YES-side ask per bucket. 11 buckets shown, μ_blend unknownC. Highlighted bucket marks the inspected market.
Ensemble trajectory · last 7d
92 snapshots · open_meteo_ensembleEnsemble forecast trajectory with P10–P90 band. Span 92 snapshots; drift from 46.5C to 39.8C (-6.8C).
Bucket edges · our_p − market_p
positive = we think bucket is underpriced≤39Chighest temperature in lucknow on april 28 2026 39corbelow—88.3%—40Chighest temperature in lucknow on april 28 2026 40c—17.0%—41Chighest temperature in lucknow on april 28 2026 41c—0.9%—42Chighest temperature in lucknow on april 28 2026 42c—0.7%—43Chighest temperature in lucknow on april 28 2026 43c—0.9%—44Chighest temperature in lucknow on april 28 2026 44c—0.4%—45Chighest temperature in lucknow on april 28 2026 45c—0.4%—46Chighest temperature in lucknow on april 28 2026 46c—0.8%—47Chighest temperature in lucknow on april 28 2026 47c—0.2%—48Cyouhighest temperature in lucknow on april 28 2026 48c—0.2%—≥49Chighest temperature in lucknow on april 28 2026 49corhigher—0.1%—