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Market inspector · warsaw · 2026-04-29
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 13°C on April 29?
μ blend—0 forecasts · 12h window
σ blend—combined uncertainty
source spread—disagreement σ across means
peak hour—local · ensemble timing
buckets11same-event siblings
Overlaid line plot comparing our model's blended probability density against the market's current YES-side ask per bucket. 11 buckets shown, μ_blend unknownC. Highlighted bucket marks the inspected market.
Ensemble trajectory · last 7d
98 snapshots · open_meteo_ensembleEnsemble forecast trajectory with P10–P90 band. Span 98 snapshots; drift from 13.7C to 8.5C (-5.2C).
Bucket edges · our_p − market_p
positive = we think bucket is underpriced≤5Chighest temperature in warsaw on april 29 2026 5corbelow—0.1%—6Chighest temperature in warsaw on april 29 2026 6c—0.6%—7Chighest temperature in warsaw on april 29 2026 7c—2.0%—8Chighest temperature in warsaw on april 29 2026 8c—37.0%—9Chighest temperature in warsaw on april 29 2026 9c—62.0%—10Chighest temperature in warsaw on april 29 2026 10c—11.0%—11Chighest temperature in warsaw on april 29 2026 11c—2.5%—12Chighest temperature in warsaw on april 29 2026 12c—0.9%—13Cyouhighest temperature in warsaw on april 29 2026 13c—0.6%—14Chighest temperature in warsaw on april 29 2026 14c—0.3%—≥15Chighest temperature in warsaw on april 29 2026 15corhigher—0.3%—